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Is this the beginning of the end for the NZ house price downturn?

May 1, 2023

The stabilisation of mortgage interest rates is one of several market indicators signalling a possible end to New Zealand’s challenging property market conditions, despite early April’s 50 basis point cash rate hike.

CoreLogic NZ’s Housing Chart Pack, a monthly update on the country’s residential housing market, shows green shoots are beginning to emerge among metrics such as listing numbers, sales volumes and an easing in price falls.

CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said despite further house price falls in March and subdued property activity levels, the market fundamentals are not as weak as they have been.

“Value trends remain weakest in the North Island, with parts of Canterbury and the West Coast still recording some modest increases,” he said. 

“Yet there were also hints in the sales data for March that the worst may now have passed for activity, and with new listings flows each week still very low, the total stock of property available for sale on the market is now just showing the first signs of tightening a little.”

Keith Niederer, NZ Network Manager, Raine & Horne, said there is a touch more stock available than at the start of the year, and buyer numbers are improving. “However, buyers are still cautious due to the cost of living challenges as much as higher interest rates. 

“While listings are still extremely tight, vendors still need to be careful about whom they list their property with to ensure the best possible sales result,” Keith recommended.  “Vendors also must have realistic price expectations.

“As such, the agent a vendor lists with must be a good communicator, have a good handle on what buyers are looking for, and what they are prepared to pay.

“For example, if a property sold down the street from yours, the agent must know why? If it has an extra bathroom or an internal access garage – and the buyer secured it for the price you want for your single bathroom property and a carport. 

He continued, “The key to achieving a successful sale in this market is to choose the right agent who you can communicate with and settle on a realistic price point based on sales results in your area. 

“A property is your biggest asset. You’ll only get to sell it once, so it’s best to do it right.”