The New Zealand real estate market has experienced a significant shift after 17 months. September marked the first time prices have shown signs of stability, as the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) reported.

Nationally, average values stabilised at $905,445 in September, with the three-month change at a negligible drop of -0.6%. From March 2022’s peak, the total fall has been 13.2%, although average values remain 24.3% higher than ‘pre-COVID’ in March 2020.

In September, the broader Wellington region exhibited flat property market conditions, while Porirua saw an uptick of 1.1% in its average property values. In addition, both Christchurch and Dunedin experienced marginal increases of 0.2%. Notably, Auckland, one of the major centres, witnessed a noteworthy rise of 0.4% in property values, marking its first increase since March 2022, according to Kelvin Davidson, the Chief Property Economist at CoreLogic NZ.

“It was only a matter of time until property values found their floor and then started to rise again, and it’s this emerging growth we’re starting to see in the data, although there’s quite a bit of diversity across the country,” he said.

Kelvin believes that there has been a notable shift in housing market confidence. A recent peak in mortgage rates, strong net migration trends, a stable labour market, and relaxed credit conditions have supported this change. He added, “A growing expectation that National may lead the next Government, with more ‘property friendly’ policies, may well be playing a role here too.

Keith Niederer, General Manager of Raine & Horne NZ, said, “The recent positive results for our local real estate markets are genuinely encouraging, demonstrating the enduring strength of property as an asset class despite the challenges we’ve weathered in the past year and a half.

While expressing optimism, Keith also urged caution, noting that the market’s actual direction might remain uncertain until the outcomes of the upcoming election are determined. 

“If history serves as our compass, it’s reasonable to expect that once the election-related disruptions are behind us, we should see a notable upward trend in the property market. This trend is characterised by increased sales activity and property prices as we set our sights on 2024.

“With this in mind, I’d urge buyers to move before values start their post-election bounce.”

For all your real estate sales and property management needs this spring, contact your local Raine & Horne office.