There are growing indications that key parts of Aotearoa’s residential real estate market have turned the corner and have started to rebound as we head into 2025.

 The latest CoreLogic Home Value Index shows that over the past quarter ending in December Kiwi home values increased in four of the country’s six main centres and property values in some key rural provincial cities have also started to rise. 

 Hamilton property values increased 1.6% in the past quarter, including a lift of 1% in December. Values rose by 0.7% in Tauranga (including an increase of 0.4% in December), were up by 0.5% in Dunedin (up 0.3 in December) and increased 0.3% in Christchurch over the quarter, but were flat in December. 

 Home values in Whangarei, Napier and Palmerston North all edged up 0.2% in December, with Nelson values increasing 0.1%.

 However, this recovery was not fully reflected in the national median home value of $803,264 which fell 0.2% in December because of continuing downward pressure in Auckland (down 0.4% in December, with the North Shore bucking the trend by increasing 0.1%) and Wellington where values fell 0.8%.

 CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist, Kelvin Davidson said there had been a discernible slowdown in the rate of national median value decline in recent months, potentially signalling that the floor for property values could be in reach. “We’re still seeing some sluggish results in Auckland and Wellington, but firmer trends seem to be starting to emerge elsewhere,” he noted.

 This is consistent with Raine & Horne, CoreLogic and leading banks forecasting 5-7% growth in national property values in 2025.  

 Contrarian Christchurch set for growth in 2025

 Christchurch is showing plenty of positive signs as 2025 begins, with some properties attracting multiple interest and some buyers seemingly motivated by a ‘fear of missing out’. 

 Mr Christian O’Malley, Co-Principal of Raine & Horne Cashmere, says, “In my seven years of experience, and more so in most recent years, Christchurch seems to have bucked the trend and has been less impacted by economic conditions. Even when other cities and regions face difficulties, Christchurch maintains its appeal, offering strong opportunities for both buyers and sellers.” 

 Mr O’Malley says Christchurch’s affordability compared to other major cities, such as Wellington and Auckland, are a key factor in its market resilience. In December 2024, the median for Christchurch City was $664,830 compared to Auckland City ($1.066 million) and Wellington City ($789,564). 

 “This is a strong sign of the city’s ongoing appeal to buyers, especially those from outside the Christchurch and Canterbury region. Roughly 30% of online portal views now come from outside Christchurch and Canterbury, compared to roughly 10% in 2018.” 

 Whether you want to rent, let, sell or buy a property, don’t hesitate to contact your local Raine & Horne office.