Anticipating the upcoming General Election scheduled for 14 October in New Zealand, a prominent real estate expert predicts that the traditional spring selling season will extend until Christmas.

Keith Niederer, General Manager NZ, Raine & Horne, said, “We are starting to see several green shoots for the real estate market, however there is no chance for activity to genuinely begin to bloom until we get past the mid-October election.

“In general, whether we're in the process of buying or selling, we usually opt to wait until the election outcome is determined, to account for any unexpected twists," he explained.

According to Keith from the standpoint of the real estate industry, it would have been advantageous for the government to call the election date earlier. “However, we are now faced with the challenge of the election falling right in the middle of the conventional peak selling season.

“As a significant number of sellers who usually might have listed now opt to wait until after October 14, the potential exists for the spring selling season to run all the way to Saturday 23 December and even the weekend after Christmas.”

Keith continued, “Shifting our attention to the positive aspects of the election, it's customary that once individuals are informed of the outcome and have more certainty, they become proactive with their real estate aspirations and start looking to borrow money again.

“This involves initiating property listings, conducting open house viewings, and reaching out to their financial brokers to commence the necessary paperwork for obtaining a loan.”

Keith noted that a considerable number of property consumers are eagerly anticipating the election outcome as positive developments persist.

As an illustration, CoreLogic's research signalled a decline in mortgage repayments as a proportion of the gross annual average household income – from a peak of 53% in Q4 of 2022 to 49% in the previous quarter. Notably, the valuation of properties in New Zealand currently stands at 7.2 times the average household income, representing a decrease from 7.8 six months prior.

“Although numerous individuals continue to allocate a significant portion of their income to their mortgages, the trajectory of affordability is showing positive signs,” Keith said.

“Despite ongoing cost pressures from expenses like fuel and food, those who have job security are likely to increase their spending once the election outcome is determined and they perceive a positive economic outlook for the country.”